Update #2: Mostly about lower-bound arrangements
The problem: What's the most points you can place and avoid making a convex n-gon?
The conjecture is that 2^(n-2)+1 points force an n-gon (so 2^(n-2) is the max points you can place without one)
An arrangement is "n-primal" if it contains no convex n-gon, but forces a convex n-gon no matter where the next point is placed.
First, a 4-primal arrangement with 4 points, and a 5-primal arrangment with 8 points:


It's easy to see that you can always put an (n-1)-gon inside another and have it remain safe. That gives a not-very-tight lower bound of g(n) >= 2(n-1). Even though the right-hand arrangement is 5-primal, we'd also need to prove that all arrangements with 8 points are also 5-primal (or already have the 5-gon) to show that 8 is the maximum number of points for n=5

A lot of messing about made me suspect that every n-primal arrangement has the same number of points in it. In other words, you can keep placing points, and regardless of how you decide to place them, you can't make a "mistake"--you won't be forced to create an n-gon until you've placed as many points as you can.
Proving this would have been helpful as it it would mean that finding one example of an n-primal arrangement would prove the conjecture for that n. Unfortunately, I think this is a counter-example to the claim: a 5-primal arrangement with only 7, instead of 8 points. Bummer.
To the right is an arrangement with 16 points and no 6-gons--I also believe it to be primal (though haven't really proven it).

Here's how we thought about it. Ignoring the center point, it contains 5 "regions" with 3 points each. The shape was constructed so that you can't select 6 points without forcing them to be concave. (Alternatively, if you're selecting points such that they remain convex, you can select at maximum 5).
Since we need 6 points for a 6-gon and there are only 5 regions, we need at least two points from at least one region. For example, 2 points in one region, and 1 point from the other 4 regions would work. So would 2 points from 2 regions, and 1 point from the remaining two; or 3 points from one region and 1 point from 3 other regions, etc.
Start at any point and attempt to construct a convex 6-gon by only turning either only counter-clockwise or only clockwise (I'll consider counter-clockwise here). The arrangment is constructed so that whenever you include 2 points in the same region, you're forced to "skip" the next region in order to keep the polygon you're building convex. That means that if you include 2 points from one region, you can only include 1 point from 3 other regions, instead of 4, which only gives you a convex polygon with 5 points total--not 6, as needed. If you include 2 points from 2 regions, you can only include 1 point from 1 other region and have it remain convex. Similarly, if you include 3 points in the same region, you're forced to skip 2 regions to remain convex. If you play around, you'll see that all the ways of making the convex 6-gon by selecting points from regions have been prevented.
The center point doesn't alter any of this. You can think of it as an extra region you could choose to visit, except it can only contain 1 point. Whenever you choose it, you're forced to skip at least one region, which means that it will never let you gain more points than you could have without it.
It seems as if this sort of approach can be generalized. For example, we could put 5 points in each of 6 regions such that selecting 2 points forces you to skip 1 region, 3 points to skip 2 regions, 4 points to skip 3 regions, etc. In general, we might make (n-1)-regions oriented roughly as the verticies of a convex (n-1)-gon might be. Each region contains a "cup" shape with (n-2) points in it arranged as I've described above.
This is an interesting idea, but still doesn't get us close to the conjecture number and leaves other questions. Arrangements with this form would grow as g(n) = (n-1)*(n-2) + c, which still isn't anywhere close to 2^(n-2). There are still ideas to explore, though:
What if we arranged the regions differently? For example, since the regions can be thought of as akin to points, should the regions be arranged in "primal" arrangements themselves? This sort of recursive embedding would certainly get the points growing fast enough to be exponential.
Anyhow, those were some experiments we've run lately. I'll keep everyone updated as we discover more!
The problem: What's the most points you can place and avoid making a convex n-gon?
The conjecture is that 2^(n-2)+1 points force an n-gon (so 2^(n-2) is the max points you can place without one)
An arrangement is "n-primal" if it contains no convex n-gon, but forces a convex n-gon no matter where the next point is placed.
First, a 4-primal arrangement with 4 points, and a 5-primal arrangment with 8 points:


It's easy to see that you can always put an (n-1)-gon inside another and have it remain safe. That gives a not-very-tight lower bound of g(n) >= 2(n-1). Even though the right-hand arrangement is 5-primal, we'd also need to prove that all arrangements with 8 points are also 5-primal (or already have the 5-gon) to show that 8 is the maximum number of points for n=5

A lot of messing about made me suspect that every n-primal arrangement has the same number of points in it. In other words, you can keep placing points, and regardless of how you decide to place them, you can't make a "mistake"--you won't be forced to create an n-gon until you've placed as many points as you can.
Proving this would have been helpful as it it would mean that finding one example of an n-primal arrangement would prove the conjecture for that n. Unfortunately, I think this is a counter-example to the claim: a 5-primal arrangement with only 7, instead of 8 points. Bummer.
To the right is an arrangement with 16 points and no 6-gons--I also believe it to be primal (though haven't really proven it).

Here's how we thought about it. Ignoring the center point, it contains 5 "regions" with 3 points each. The shape was constructed so that you can't select 6 points without forcing them to be concave. (Alternatively, if you're selecting points such that they remain convex, you can select at maximum 5).
Since we need 6 points for a 6-gon and there are only 5 regions, we need at least two points from at least one region. For example, 2 points in one region, and 1 point from the other 4 regions would work. So would 2 points from 2 regions, and 1 point from the remaining two; or 3 points from one region and 1 point from 3 other regions, etc.
Start at any point and attempt to construct a convex 6-gon by only turning either only counter-clockwise or only clockwise (I'll consider counter-clockwise here). The arrangment is constructed so that whenever you include 2 points in the same region, you're forced to "skip" the next region in order to keep the polygon you're building convex. That means that if you include 2 points from one region, you can only include 1 point from 3 other regions, instead of 4, which only gives you a convex polygon with 5 points total--not 6, as needed. If you include 2 points from 2 regions, you can only include 1 point from 1 other region and have it remain convex. Similarly, if you include 3 points in the same region, you're forced to skip 2 regions to remain convex. If you play around, you'll see that all the ways of making the convex 6-gon by selecting points from regions have been prevented.The center point doesn't alter any of this. You can think of it as an extra region you could choose to visit, except it can only contain 1 point. Whenever you choose it, you're forced to skip at least one region, which means that it will never let you gain more points than you could have without it.
It seems as if this sort of approach can be generalized. For example, we could put 5 points in each of 6 regions such that selecting 2 points forces you to skip 1 region, 3 points to skip 2 regions, 4 points to skip 3 regions, etc. In general, we might make (n-1)-regions oriented roughly as the verticies of a convex (n-1)-gon might be. Each region contains a "cup" shape with (n-2) points in it arranged as I've described above.This is an interesting idea, but still doesn't get us close to the conjecture number and leaves other questions. Arrangements with this form would grow as g(n) = (n-1)*(n-2) + c, which still isn't anywhere close to 2^(n-2). There are still ideas to explore, though:
What if we arranged the regions differently? For example, since the regions can be thought of as akin to points, should the regions be arranged in "primal" arrangements themselves? This sort of recursive embedding would certainly get the points growing fast enough to be exponential.
Anyhow, those were some experiments we've run lately. I'll keep everyone updated as we discover more!




